中(zhong)國電煤采購(gou)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指數(shu)(CECI)編(bian)制(zhi)辦公室發布(bu)的《CECI周(zhou)報》(2023年(nian)15期)顯示(shi),進(jin)口(kou)指數(shu)到岸綜合標煤單價(jia)(jia)連續(xu)三周(zhou)上漲后本周(zhou)小幅(fu)下跌。采購(gou)經理人(ren)分(fen)項指數(shu)中(zhong),供給和庫存分(fen)指數(shu)處(chu)于擴張(zhang)區(qu)間,需求、價(jia)(jia)格(ge)和航(hang)運分(fen)指數(shu)處(chu)于收縮區(qu)間,供給分(fen)指數(shu)環比上升,需求、庫存、價(jia)(jia)格(ge)和航(hang)運分(fen)指數(shu)環比下降。煤炭化驗儀(yi)(yi)器 煤炭化驗設備 量(liang)熱儀(yi)(yi) 測硫儀(yi)(yi) 定硫儀(yi)(yi)
本周,氣溫逐步回升,用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)基本持(chi)平,供熱量(liang)大幅(fu)(fu)下降(jiang)(jiang)。電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)降(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)較(jiao)大,入(ru)廠(chang)煤(mei)量(liang)小幅(fu)(fu)上漲,電(dian)(dian)廠(chang)煤(mei)炭庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)漲幅(fu)(fu)較(jiao)快。4月13日,納入(ru)統計的發電(dian)(dian)企業煤(mei)炭庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)可用天(tian)數(shu)18.7天(tian)。
近期(qi),在(zai)需(xu)求持(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)不及(ji)預(yu)期(qi)、庫(ku)存維持(chi)高(gao)位和進口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)大幅增加等因(yin)素的(de)影響下(xia),動力(li)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價格持(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)下(xia)降(jiang)。市場(chang)觀望情緒(xu)濃厚,煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭需(xu)求表現(xian)低(di)迷。一是(shi)電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)處于消費淡季(ji)。隨(sui)著(zhu)火電(dian)企業(ye)陸續(xu)(xu)(xu)開展檢修,近期(qi)電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)消費穩中有降(jiang),同時長協煤(mei)(mei)(mei)兌現(xian)良好,整體(ti)庫(ku)存上升明顯(xian)。二是(shi)中間環節庫(ku)存高(gao)企。北方主(zhu)要港口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭庫(ku)存明顯(xian)高(gao)于往年(nian)同期(qi)水(shui)平,部分(fen)港口(kou)甚至面臨疏港壓力(li),承接煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭能(neng)力(li)轉(zhuan)弱(ruo)。三是(shi)貿(mao)(mao)易商需(xu)求低(di)迷。隨(sui)著(zhu)價格加速下(xia)跌(die),煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭貿(mao)(mao)易風(feng)險明顯(xian)增加,貿(mao)(mao)易商觀望情緒(xu)較(jiao)濃,囤煤(mei)(mei)(mei)意愿明顯(xian)減弱(ruo)。綜(zong)合上述情況,在(zai)供(gong)需(xu)寬松和看空預(yu)期(qi)下(xia),短(duan)期(qi)動力(li)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)市場(chang)仍(reng)將承壓,價格也將繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)(xu)持(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)走(zou)低(di)。
本期(qi),CECI進(jin)口(kou)(kou)指數到岸綜合標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)單價(jia)1223元/噸,較(jiao)上期(qi)大幅下(xia)調(diao)(diao)12元/噸,環比下(xia)調(diao)(diao)1.0%。本周(zhou),進(jin)口(kou)(kou)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)格大幅下(xia)調(diao)(diao),其中中高卡煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)格降幅較(jiao)大。隨著(zhu)內(nei)貿市(shi)場價(jia)格下(xia)跌,進(jin)口(kou)(kou)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)格優勢縮(suo)小,終端招(zhao)標(biao)采購積(ji)極性下(xia)降,進(jin)口(kou)(kou)商投(tou)標(biao)價(jia)格持續下(xia)調(diao)(diao)。目(mu)前(qian)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)已全面(mian)倒掛(gua),后期(qi)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)走勢還需關注內(nei)貿市(shi)場變動情況(kuang)。煤(mei)(mei)質分(fen)析(xi)儀器(qi) 煤(mei)(mei)炭檢(jian)測儀器(qi)
本期(qi),CECI采購經理人指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)49.11%,連(lian)(lian)續(xu)3期(qi)處于(yu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)縮(suo)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),環(huan)(huan)比下降0.56個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。分(fen)(fen)項指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數中,供(gong)給(gei)(gei)和(he)(he)庫(ku)存分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數處于(yu)擴張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),需求、價(jia)格和(he)(he)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數處于(yu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)縮(suo)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),供(gong)給(gei)(gei)分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數環(huan)(huan)比上(shang)升,需求、庫(ku)存、價(jia)格和(he)(he)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數環(huan)(huan)比下降。供(gong)給(gei)(gei)分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)53.67%,環(huan)(huan)比上(shang)升1.11個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian),連(lian)(lian)續(xu)11期(qi)處于(yu)擴張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),表(biao)(biao)明(ming)(ming)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)給(gei)(gei)量(liang)繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)加,增(zeng)(zeng)幅有(you)所(suo)擴大(da)(da)。需求分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)49.33%,環(huan)(huan)比下降0.30個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian),連(lian)(lian)續(xu)3期(qi)處于(yu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)縮(suo)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),表(biao)(biao)明(ming)(ming)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)需求量(liang)繼(ji)續(xu)下降,降幅有(you)所(suo)擴大(da)(da)。庫(ku)存分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)52.11%,環(huan)(huan)比下降0.27個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian),連(lian)(lian)續(xu)6期(qi)處于(yu)擴張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),表(biao)(biao)明(ming)(ming)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)庫(ku)存量(liang)繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)加,增(zeng)(zeng)幅有(you)所(suo)收(shou)(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)。價(jia)格分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)41.61%,環(huan)(huan)比下降3.68個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian),連(lian)(lian)續(xu)5期(qi)處于(yu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)縮(suo)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),表(biao)(biao)明(ming)(ming)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價(jia)格繼(ji)續(xu)下降,降幅有(you)所(suo)擴大(da)(da)。航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)45.95%,環(huan)(huan)比下降1.53個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian),連(lian)(lian)續(xu)3期(qi)處于(yu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)縮(suo)區(qu)間(jian)(jian),表(biao)(biao)明(ming)(ming)電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)價(jia)格繼(ji)續(xu)下降,降幅有(you)所(suo)擴大(da)(da)。
本周(4月(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至4月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),下同(tong)),納(na)入統計的(de)燃(ran)煤發電(dian)企業日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)均發電(dian)量,環(huan)比(bi)(3月(yue)31日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至4月(yue)6日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),下同(tong))減少0.9%,同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.2%。日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)均供(gong)熱量環(huan)比(bi)減少20.2%,同(tong)比(bi)減少3.7%;電(dian)廠(chang)日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)均耗煤量環(huan)比(bi)減少4.5%,同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.3%;日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)均入廠(chang)煤量環(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.1%,同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)14.7%。
4月12日,在國(guo)(guo)務院新(xin)聞辦“全面落實黨的(de)(de)(de)二十大(da)(da)(da)精神(shen)深(shen)入推進能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)質(zhi)量發展(zhan)”新(xin)聞發布(bu)會上,國(guo)(guo)家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)局(ju)預計(ji)今年全國(guo)(guo)最(zui)大(da)(da)(da)電(dian)力(li)負(fu)荷可能(neng)(neng)超過13.6億千瓦,較(jiao)去年有較(jiao)大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)增長。對此(ci),國(guo)(guo)家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)局(ju)將加(jia)(jia)強統籌協(xie)(xie)調,全力(li)做(zuo)(zuo)好(hao)以(yi)下五方面的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)作(zuo):一(yi)是(shi)抓好(hao)監(jian)測分析預警。做(zuo)(zuo)好(hao)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需形勢常態化的(de)(de)(de)監(jian)測工(gong)作(zuo),按照“一(yi)省一(yi)策”抓好(hao)電(dian)力(li)保(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)作(zuo)。二是(shi)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)(da)支撐性電(dian)源(yuan)和輸電(dian)通道建設投(tou)產(chan)。三是(shi)確保(bao)電(dian)煤充足供(gong)(gong)(gong)應。重點(dian)保(bao)障電(dian)煤供(gong)(gong)(gong)應的(de)(de)(de)量、質(zhi)和價。督促(cu)指導地方加(jia)(jia)快建設煤礦(kuang)手續的(de)(de)(de)辦理,盡快投(tou)產(chan)達(da)產(chan)。四是(shi)全力(li)做(zuo)(zuo)好(hao)機組穩發滿(man)發工(gong)作(zuo)。督促(cu)發電(dian)企業(ye)落實電(dian)煤、燃(ran)氣的(de)(de)(de)穩定供(gong)(gong)(gong)應,保(bao)質(zhi)保(bao)量簽(qian)訂電(dian)煤和燃(ran)氣的(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)長協(xie)(xie),并加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)(da)力(li)度監(jian)管履(lv)約(yue)情(qing)況。五是(shi)科學(xue)做(zuo)(zuo)好(hao)負(fu)荷管理工(gong)作(zuo)。煤質(zhi)儀器
4月(yue)13日,中國(guo)海關總署(shu)發(fa)布了3月(yue)份進口(kou)煤炭(tan)數據,2023年(nian)3月(yue)份,我國(guo)當(dang)月(yue)進口(kou)煤炭(tan)4117萬(wan)噸(dun),環(huan)比2月(yue)上漲(zhang)41.1%,同(tong)比上漲(zhang)150.7%;1-3月(yue)累計進口(kou)量(liang)10180萬(wan)噸(dun),較去年(nian)同(tong)期上漲(zhang)96.1%。
根據國(guo)(guo)務(wu)院物流保通(tong)保暢工作領(ling)導小組辦(ban)公(gong)室監測(ce)匯(hui)總數據,4月3日-9日,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)貨(huo)運(yun)(yun)物流有序運(yun)(yun)行,其中國(guo)(guo)家(jia)鐵(tie)路貨(huo)運(yun)(yun)繼續(xu)保持高位運(yun)(yun)行,累計運(yun)(yun)輸貨(huo)物7380.2萬噸,環(huan)(huan)比下降(jiang)2.68%;全(quan)國(guo)(guo)高速(su)公(gong)路貨(huo)車(che)累計通(tong)行4744.2萬輛,環(huan)(huan)比下降(jiang)7.95%。鶴壁市新銳(rui)科技(ji)有限公(gong)司(si)
綜(zong)合(he)以(yi)上分(fen)析,一(yi)是(shi)目前(qian)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)側(ce)主產區坑口煤(mei)(mei)價延續(xu)跌勢(shi),貿易商(shang)觀(guan)望情緒濃(nong)厚,價格持(chi)續(xu)承(cheng)壓(ya)下行(xing)。部分(fen)電廠機組(zu)設備(bei)仍(reng)在(zai)檢(jian)修(xiu),疊(die)加水電等(deng)清(qing)潔能源(yuan)(yuan)替代效應增強,火電負荷繼續(xu)下降,電廠日耗持(chi)續(xu)低位,庫存維(wei)持(chi)較高水平(ping),終端整體采購意(yi)愿較差。隨(sui)著迎峰度夏臨(lin)近,部分(fen)電廠機組(zu)檢(jian)修(xiu)結束(shu),逐步增加補充庫存需求,建(jian)議發電企(qi)業根(gen)據(ju)自身庫存水平(ping)、區域內(nei)發電機組(zu)檢(jian)修(xiu)進度,適時把(ba)握采購節奏。二(er)是(shi)目前(qian)采購以(yi)兌現中長協(xie)合(he)同為主,建(jian)議加強質量監督和驗收,不斷提(ti)升(sheng)電煤(mei)(mei)供應保(bao)障水平(ping)。
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